Boeing prediction lacks freighter numbers

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Boeing 777 in Boeing livery

Boeing has projected there will be demand in China for 6,330 new aircraft over the next 20 years.

The aircraft manufacturer released the forecast on 25 August in its annual China Current Market Outlook (CMO), estimating the total value of the aircraft at $950 billion.

Boeing’s forecast comes despite a slump in the country’s economy, the tumbling of share prices this week in China’s stockmarket and the fall in the country’s currency the Yuan Renminbi.
The manufacturer says that China will need about 190 regional aircraft, 4,630 single aisle, 81 small widebody, 650 medium widebody and 50 large widebody over the next two decades.
There was no mention in the CMO of how many freighters the country will require. But, in Boeing’s Long Term Market Report for 2015 to 2034, published earlier this year, it said the Asian region, not only China, would need 380 new production freighters and 570 converted freighters in the years ahead.

Boeing said in the same report that China’s airfreight market is expected to grow by seven per cent over the next 20 years and the economy will grow by 6.6 per cent in the same period.
Boeing vice president for marketing, Randy Tinseth, says: “Despite the current volatility in China’s financial market, we see strong growth in the country’s aviation sector over the long term.

“Over the next 20 years, China’s commercial airplane fleet will nearly triple: from 2,570 in 2014 to 7,210 in 2034, with more than 70 per cent of these deliveries accommodating growth.”
Tinseth explains that Chinese airlines have more than doubled their long haul international capacity over the past three years, in large part following the delivery of Boeing 747-8 Intercontinental aircraft to Air China and Boeing 777-300 extended range and Boeing 787 models to several Chinese carriers.

“Enabled by China’s growing middle class population, new visa policies and the underlying strength of its economic growth, this expansion is expected to continue, and in fact accelerate,” Tinseth says. “The 777, 787 and 747-8 are perfectly positioned to support Chinese airlines’ continued globalisation.” Boeing projects that across the globe there will be investments of $5.6 trillion for 38,050 new commercial aircraft to be delivered during the next 20 years.