WorldACD: Volumes fall in a month for first time since June 2013

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Frankfurt Airport

Air cargo volumes fell for the first time over a monthly period in November 2015 since June 2013, according to market data  published by WorldACD.

The industry analyst says there was 0.9 per cent year-on-year (YOY) fall in the month, but US dollar yields did improve for the third month in a row, albeit by only one per cent, which was smaller than the usual yield improvement from October to November.

WorldACD explains: “Going by the bare worldwide monthly figures, November 2015 was not a good month for air cargo,” but it adds there are “some glimmers of hope.”

It says the month-on-month yield increase was in line with last year’s when taking into account the major exchange rate effects.

WorldACD feels it is not all bad news, largely due to China and Hong Kong: “Together, these usual growth engines account for almost 30 per cent of worldwide revenues. Their exports by air to Europe had been below previous year’s volumes for a good part of 2015, but over the past months this negative pattern was reversed.”

WorldACD says North America had performed well since the beginning of 2015 and continued that trend towards the year’s end and the yield developments were even more encouraging.

The market analyst says contrary to figures from other sources, it observes rather positive yield patterns for Asia Pacific. Between August and November, yields rose by 17 per cent to Europe, and by 10 per cent to North America.

However, it says intra-Asia Pacific air cargo suffered and YOY volumes were down by four per cent in November, and by 1.3 per cent for the last three months. And coupled with that, the average US dollar yield in the area has fallen by four per cent since August 2015.

Since August, WorldACD says volumes from Africa, Europe and the Middle East & South Asia (MESA) grew more than average (by four, four and two per cent respectively), while volumes from the Americas contracted compared to 2014. But in Central & South America, compensation was found in strongly growing yields between August and November (+13 per cent).

Perishables and pharmaceuticals remain positive over the past three months, with YOY volume growth of five per cent and 10.5 per cent respectively. Perishables shared in the small yield upswing since last August, but pharma did not and their rapid growth is accompanied by a US dollar yield drop of five per cent since September.