Boeing projects a demand for 39,620 new aircraft worth $5.9 trillion over the next 20 years, with most of this coming from single aisle units.
The manufacturer released its Current Market Outlook at the Farnborough International Airshow on Monday 11 July, and is an increase of 4.1 per cent over last year’s forecast. It predicts the single aisle market will be particularly strong, with low-cost carriers and emerging markets seeing the most growth. The passenger market is predicted to grow by 4.8 per cent per annum over the next 20 years with cargo increasing by 4.2 per cent.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes vice president marketing, Randy Tinseth says: “Despite recent events that have impacted the financial markets, the aviation sector will continue to see long-term growth with the commercial fleet doubling in size.”
Of the aircraft, Boeing predicts 28,140 will be single-aisle aircraft worth $3 trillion, 5,100 small widebodies worth $1.3 trillion, 3,470 medium widebodies worth $1.2 trillion and 530 large widebodies worth $220 billion. The manufacturer also projects the need for 930 new freighters and 1,440 converted freighters.
Most of the demand will come from emerging economies, with Asia predicts to need 15,130 aircraft, with North America next at 8,330 aircraft, Europe in third with 7,570 and the Middle East needing 3,310. Latin America is predicted to need 2,960, with 1,150 for Africa and 1,170 for the CIS.
Boeing also forecasts that the large widebodies will be replaced between 2021-28 with a shift from very large aircraft to smaller ones such as the 787, 777 and 777X.